Fantasy Baseball Article
Ready or Not Here We Come "2005
Breakout Candidates"
(By Mike Terlizzi Guest
Writer for Sport Fanatics Fantasy Sports on 1-25-05)
Year after year, fantasy baseball owners scour through
baseball magazines, in an effort to find that tidbit of information that could
possibly lead them in their search of the Holy Grail; that of course being a
first place finish in their respective leagues. It takes not only lots of
research prior to the season, but a little luck in locating the hitter on his
way to a career year, or that pitcher who is ready to register double digit
wins, with high strikeout numbers. There are a few methods to this madness,
some factual, some not, but in either case, the owner who does the most homework
has the best chance of finishing on top.
Reading article after article can seem like tedious work, but in the end it can
really pay off. These articles are of course written by "experts", and many
times can provide you with tips for identifying a player who may be in for a
career year, or even a decline. Many experts believe that when a hitter turns
the magic age of 27, he is in for a career year. Others will tell you that a
pitcher may be in line for a career year when he allows less hits than innings
pitched for the first time. While these may be viable ways to look for a career
year, neither can be counted on as infallible sources of projecting a breakout.
Anyone who thinks that luck does not play a major role in winning a fantasy
league, may be fooling themselves, but it never hurts to hear what the so called
"experts" have to say.
With that being said, we will take a look at our methods for predicting a
breakout year. In addition we will list our prime hitting candidates who could
post career best numbers this year, as well as some pitchers who could be in for
big years!
What To Look For In A Hitter
When trying to figure out which hitters may be ready to have a
career year, there are many factors that must be taken into account, such as
ballpark, lineup, age, and career trends. But possibly the most important stat
is Walk totals. For my money, a young hitters' walk total is paramount in
establishing his level of maturity at the plate. Look for a hitter whose walk
total may have markedly improved from the year before. Remember to take into
account his number of at bats. The philosophy is simple, but not all your
fellow owners follow it. The more walks a hitter has, the more patient he
is. The more patient he is, the more pitches he sees. The more pitches he
sees, the greater the chance of the pitcher making a mistake during his at
bat. A major league hitter has no problem depositing mistakes into the cheap
seats, and in turn helping your fantasy stats. This of course is not an exact
science, but should serve as a fairly accurate indicator of potential.
What to Look For In a Pitcher
Not to sound like a broken record, but again when identifying a
pitcher who could possibly be in for a career year, you can indeed look at his
walk total. A pitcher, who has command of his stuff, is a pitcher who is going
to have success. You should take notice of a pitcher who reduced his walk rate
from the year before. Take his number of innings pitched, and divide it by the
amount of walks, and that's how you will arrive at your number. The same
philosophy that is used for a hitter can be used for a pitcher. The less walks
a pitcher has, the less pitches he throws. As his number of pitches goes down,
so does his likelihood of making a mistake, thus enhancing his chances of
putting up solid fantasy numbers. Now that doesn't mean that you want to draft
a pitcher who has a low walk total but gives up 44 home runs a year; it simply
means that if a pitcher has good command of his pitches, his chances for success
increase.
Breakout Hitters for 2005
Brandon Inge C/3B Tigers
A defensive specialist, Inge put up solid offensive numbers across the board
last year, and could be in line for a breakthrough season. While not blessed
with the God-given talent of a Carlos Beltran, Inge is more than capable of
putting up respectable fantasy stats for your fantasy team this year. Inge will
enter the season at that magical age of 27 and should see regular playing time
at third base as part of a much improved Tigers lineup. The real appeal here is
the fact that Inge will qualify at catcher in most leagues, and could offer up
excellent numbers for that position. I certainly would happy with 17 homers 75
RBI and a .285 average out of my catcher position! Wouldn't you?
Brad Wilkerson 1B/OF Nationals
Quick how many homeruns did Brad Wilkerson have last year? Believe it or not,
Wilkerson had possibly the quietest 32 homer season ever. It could be attributed
to the fact that he only managed 67 RBI, or the fact that he registered a .255
batting average. If you are wily, you will harp on those numbers at your draft,
and hope the other owners heed your insincere warnings. Meanwhile you should be
aiming to grab Wilkerson in the early to middle rounds of your draft. Wilkerson
will be valuable in all leagues, but especially in 5x5 leagues that place a
premium on stolen bases. You may not have realized Wilkerson added 13 steals to
go along with his career best homer total. Don't look for Wilkerson to put up
big RBI numbers out of the leadoff spot, but with the additions of Vinny
Castilla and Jose Guillen, his runs total should certainly increase along with
his steals total. Wilkerson displays patience beyond his years as evidenced by
his walk rate (1 per 5.3 at bats) and could be in line for a 25HR-30SB year with
about 95 runs, 75 RBI and a .275 average. Oh yeah and Wilkerson will be 27
years old this season as well!
D'Angelo Jimenez 2B Reds
Second Base could possibly be the weakest position in fantasy baseball this
year. Shortstop is now a power position, and third base is the deepest it's been
in years, as far as offensive talent goes. With that said, it is imperative to
find a steal or two at second base, since the big names will be off the board in
a hurry. It was only 5 years ago that the Yankees were boasting 2 of the best
middle infield prospects in the game, one is Alfonso Soriano (we know what he
has done) and the other is this guy, D'Angelo Jimenez. A car wreck that almost
left him paralyzed set his career back a bit, which is why Jimenez may just now
be entering his most productive years at the age of 27. Noticing a trend
yet? Jimenez posted solid numbers across the board last year, and may have only
scratched the surface of his unlimited potential. A steady BB/AB increase, and
leading off for a potentially dangerous Cincinnati lineup will only help Jimenez
become the players many scouts touted him to be just a few years back. If you
are looking for value at the 2B position, Jimenez is your man. Grab him in the
mid to late middle rounds, and reap the rewards of a wise pick.
Carlos Pena 1B Tigers
Ok so most of us know who Carlos Pena is, but often players who burst onto the
scene and seem to fizzle out quickly, are forgotten about. Think Phil Nevin. That's
not to say that Pena will suddenly become a 30 homer 110 RBI guy with a .290
average, but he is quite capable of putting up solid if not spectacular
numbers. When he first arrived on the scene in
Texas, Pena was
being compared to Rafael Palmeiro, and I'm thinking this is the year that those
comparisons come to fruition. Pena saw an increase in his walk rate last year,
and produced a career best 27 homeruns. Batting in the 7th spot in the Tiger
lineup will allow Pena to blossom at his own pace, and could pay off with a
career year. My guess is that by mid season, Pena will be in the top half of
the Tiger lineup on his way to a career year. I think 30 homeruns with 95 RBI
and a .275 average is certainly possible.
Hee Seop Choi 1B Dodgers
When you take a second look at Choi's 2004 season, it wasn't as bad from a
fantasy aspect it is may have seemed. Ok so maybe it was; anyone who invested
in a breakout year from Choi was probably disappointed to say the least. You're
in bad shape when your most memorable highlight as a player is getting knocked
out by your own pitcher on a pop up (Kerry Wood). So now that we painted a
bleak picture of Choi, let's take a look at the positives. Choi was a highly
regarded prospect, and is still only 26 years old, so it's not too late for him
to fulfill his potential. Even though he was only capable of a .250 average
last season, he managed to increase his walk rate. He should be stepping into
an everyday job as the Dodgers first baseman, and early indications have manager
Jim Tracy batting Choi in the 2 hole. With J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent, and Milton
Bradley batting behind him, Choi is in position to put up some real solid
numbers. His patient style will suit him very well in that batting position,
and with Izturis leading off, Choi could see a lot of fastballs. Izturis stole a
career high 25 bases last year, and could post 35-40 steals this year. Izturis'
continued development could shape Choi's season, which should look something
like 26 homeruns 75-80 RBI, 85 runs scored, and a .285 avg.
Breakout Pitchers for 2005
Chris Carpenter SP Cardinals
Ok so I may be a year late on this one, but I really like the chances of Chris
Carpenter becoming the Cardinals staff ace, and holding that title for the next
5 years or so. Carpenter who stands 6'6 has loads of talent, and possesses
excellent stuff. The potential was always there, but the injury bug seemed to
follow Carpenter everywhere he went. Now playing in an excellent ballpark for
pitchers, and behind a stellar lineup, Carpenter has the makings of a fantasy
ace. Carpenter's walk total plummeted to 38 last year in 182 innings, which
equates to a little below 1.5 walks per game. That was way down from prior
years were Carpenter was allowing roughly 3.5 walks per game. Carpenter can be
had in the middle rounds, and will go for about $16 dollars in most leagues, but
should earn much more than that. Make Carpenter a priority on draft day, and
sneak him from under the noses of your fellow owners.
Bronson Arroyo SP Red Sox
In his first full season, Arroyo put up respectable fantasy numbers for the
World Champion Red Sox, tallying double digit wins, with a handful of
strikeouts, and a solid whip. Only 27 years old, Arroyo has plenty of room for
improvement, and the pressure free situation he is in will suit him well. He
should serve as the Red Sox 4th or 5th starter, and could put up very good
numbers while he matches up against the 4th and 5th starters of other teams, who
probably belong in the minor leagues. Arroyo showed good command last year, as
he issued only 1.5 walks per game, as opposed to prior years where he
surrendered almost 3 walks per outing. Arroyo should be available in your mixed
league drafts towards the late middle rounds, and could be had for about $8
dollars which could be a bargain.
Adam Eaton SP Padres
Now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Eaton is primed to have a monster
year! The 27 year old Eaton posted his lowest walk total last season, and plays
in possibly the best pitchers park in all of baseball. When you simply look at
the stats, it would seem as if Eaton's 2004 was a disappointment, and that's
just what you want your opponents to think. Eaton was actually quite consistent
last year, and has an abundance of talent. He is primed to follow in the
footsteps of his teammate Jake Peavy who had a breakthrough season last
year. The addition of Woody Williams will add veteran presence to this young
staff, but more importantly will shuffle Eaton back to the 4th spot in the
rotation. He will matching up against other number 4 and 5 starters, and should
post excellent numbers. Eaton will last into the mid rounds of most drafts, and
will be priced at about 10 dollars. Make the investment, it's worth it.
Victor Santos SP Brewers
Sure you're probably thinking to yourself "yeah right Victor Santos?" But hey
if we didn't have super sleepers, then there would be no such thing as value
guys. I think
Santos fits into
that category. He isn't going to post mind blowing stats, but could possibly
perform much better than his price tag would suggest. He is a waiver wire
pickup, and a $1 pitcher on most lists. So why not take a shot? Let's see if
we can make a case for selecting Santos. Due to his second half swoon, few
owners may remember that Victor Santos was 9-3 at one point last year before
falling apart. Considering it was his first full season, and he was throwing a
lot more innings than in the past, it wasn't all that bad. He finished with 11
wins on a bad Brewers team, and registered 115 strikeouts in 154 innings
pitched. Convinced yet? Ok maybe we are grasping at straws, or we could
possibly be on the ground level of a breakout year from a true super sleeper;
time will tell. Take a shot on Santos, and the worst case scenario is that you
drop him after a few bad starts. But wouldn't it be nice to have a pitcher for
a buck reward you with double digit wins and good strikeout totals.
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