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SPORT FANATICS FANTASY SPORTSHOW I PREPARE BASEBALL PLAYER PROJECTIONS (By Mike Inglett of Sport Fanatics - Developer of the Sport Fanatics Projections)
Over the past several years, as our site has seen tremendous growth, we have been asked countless times how we prepare our fantasy player projections. We appreciate the hundreds of emails we receive every year saying how you think our projections at Sport Fanatics are the best free or paid for projections available. I am not certain we are the best (as far as I know, no study has been done on this), but I would say we can hold our own against anyone because of how we go about determining the player projections. Because there are so many variables throughout the year no person can accurately predict all of the player performances. With that said, I strive to prepare the most accurate projections I can based on hundreds of hours of research every season and over 30 years of experience watching and evaluating baseball games at all levels.
I like to think of my projections as a mix of science and art. I look at historical statistics of the players (science), but we also mix in a good portion of our own common sense (art) when making our projections for the coming year. We will explain how we arrive at our projections based on three distinct areas which include items that apply to 1.) both hitters and pitchers, 2.) hitters only and 3.) pitchers only.
I. General projection strategies that apply to hitters and pitchers 1. Research, research and more research. There is no one website, book or magazine that produces all of the data and insight needed to make the most accurate projections possible. With continuous research from a variety of sources and constant watching/evaluating of baseball games at all levels I make educated opinions based on my own experience and that from some of the most talented people in the sports industry.
2. If a player has played the last 3 years in the majors with a reasonable number of at bats or innings pitched, I begin the projections by using a three year weighted average to arrive at a base figure for the various scoring categories. I typically assign 60% to last years stats, 30% to the stats from two years ago and 10% from the stats of three years ago. If a player has not been in the league for three years I do different formulas to arrive at a base projection. From the base projection I change the projected numbers based on all of the numerous items listed below.
3. While creating the base projections I make note of the statistical trends for the player in all categories if the trend is moving up, down or staying flat. I also make note if the player had a "career year" last season or had an unexplained "off year".
4. I create base performance levels, which are formulas I use to show fantasy point values, for all of the categories I use in our rankings. For example, in the initial 2007 rankings for runs scored I project Grady Sizemore to lead the majors in runs scored with 128. I assigned a value of 1.00 to Grady Sizemore as a base performance level for runs scored and create a formula to calculate the runs scored value for the remaining players. I am not going to go in to detail on each of the categories, but the runs scored example above is similar to what I use in each of our categories that are used in our rankings.
5. Because of free agency, teams are constantly changing their personnel. With change comes opportunity for players to earn starting jobs for the first time in the field, rotation or bullpen. Often the best value picks come from players who are first time starters. Also, if a player is traded to a team with a better or worse supporting cast around them the projections need to be adjusted.
6. The home park that a player plays half of their games in can have a dramatic affect on their fantasy numbers. Certain parks are better for hitters and certain parks are better for pitchers.
7. Injury risk plays an important part in my projections. There is no way to predict who will get hurt during the season, but I do factor in to the projections players who are injury prone and who I do not think will play an entire season. Think of players like Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Rich Harden, etc. when my projections look lower then your expectations. Also, if a player is recovering from off-season surgery, that is taken into consideration in when calculating projections.
8. Manager or coaching changes made by a team. The demeanor and experience a new manager or coach brings to a team can affect how players produce on the field. Also, some managers have a tendency to play veterans, while others are more open to playing their younger/inexperienced players.
9. I review first half statistics with second half statistics and look to see if there is a dramatic increase or decrease from one another. I look into why the dramatic increase or decrease occurred and may adjust projections depending on why this happened.
10. I spend almost as much time researching players in the minor league system as I do current major league players. Once again it is very important to see where the value is in your fantasy baseball league. It is very important to know what talent is coming up to the majors and at what time they are expected to make the jump from the minors to the majors. Everyone knows that players like Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Howard will go very early in fantasy league drafts. One of the keys to your draft is to have a good read on when young/rookie players should be drafted. Draft them too early and you will not get the full benefit of their value, wait to draft them too late and you may miss out on a player with great fantasy potential and value. Because there is little, if any, major league history to review on these players experience and research comes into play when determining their true value. Every year we create a fantasy prospects list with comments on young players who could help your fantasy team in the coming year(s).
11. When evaluating the young players who are in the minor league system, it is very important to know what parks they are playing in and what their age is in determining their fantasy potential at the major league level. Just like in the majors, the park that they play in can have a dramatic affect on their statistics. Also, the age of the players relative to the level they are at in the minors plays a big part in their potential fantasy value. This does not apply to all players, but in general we look for players who excel at the single A level that are between the ages of 18-20, excel at the double A level that are between the ages of 21-22 and excel at the triple A level by the age of 23. You can add a year for catchers as they tend to take at least a year longer to develop. If a prospect is playing at a high standard while in these minor league levels in the age group specified, the probability of becoming a quality major league baseball player is greatly enhanced. Once again, this is the general rule I follow, but there are exceptions.
12. Memo to all, baseball players are human. Believe it or not, they have lives outside of baseball and just like all of us what goes on outside of baseball can have an influence on how they produce on the field. By constantly researching and reading what is going on with players in the off-season and during spring training I can be better prepared if there are any outside distractions or accomplishments that may affect their projections.
13. Finally, with experience comes knowledge. I spend hundreds of hours researching for the baseball projections every season and have over 30 years of experience watching and evaluating baseball games at all professional levels. I also have a Master's Degree in Finance and a Minor in Economics, which helps me analyze and dissect the true meaning of the statistics I am evaluating. The twelve items listed above and my experience provides a solid base by which to start the projections. I break down the hitter and pitcher projections further based on the information listed below.
II. General projection strategies that apply to hitters only 1. As a general rule, hitters are in their prime at the ages of 27 and 28. If there is a player who has three years of major league experience and will be 27 or 28, I will adjust for an increase in his overall stats. The catching position usually develops their batting skills a little later then the other positions, so I look for their prime years to be around 29 and 30.
2. Although a hitters overall game usually peaks around 27-28, the power numbers tend to max out when a player is 29-31 years old. If the player has been experiencing an upward trend in his power numbers, I usually will continue to increase his power numbers until he reaches 31.
3. Speed tends to be a younger players game. A base stealer is best when he is in his 20’s. When he reaches his early 30’s, his speed and base stealing effectiveness will usually drop off substantially.
4. I do believe in the “sophomore slump”. Players who had very good rookie years, usually drop off in year two, but if they are good will rebound in year three. Therefore, second year starters usually will have their projections lowered, while third year starters will usually have an increase in their projections.
5. I look trends in the OPS and in the number extra base hits to help determine if a hitter’s power numbers are likely to increase or decrease for the upcoming year.
6. Another important factor in determining the hitter’s overall ability to produce fantasy statistics is to look at their walk and strikeout ratios. The walk ratio (BB/Plate Appearances) is important for leagues that include OBP as one of their scoring categories and a high walk ratio also tends to increase the amount of runs scored for that player. The strikeout ratio (K/Plate Appearances) is also important because it is often a contributing factor to a player’s batting average and OBP. The more a player strikes out, the fewer number of times the player puts the ball in play to at least give him a chance to get on base and generate runs.
7. The physical tools and abilities (like speed and power) that a player has come into consideration when developing projections. I would not expect a player who weighs 150 pounds to produce 35+ homers and drive in 125+ runs, but they may have the ability to steal 50 bases and score 120+ runs. Same goes for the other side of the scale where today’s players are topping 225 pounds. I would expect better power numbers from the big men (in general) and not much in terms of stolen bases.
8. A change in where the player hits in the batting order can have a dramatic impact on a hitter’s fantasy production. For example, in the past Alfonso Soriano batted in the middle of the order and was counted on to hit for power and knock in runs. Now he will probably bat leadoff. He has a good power stroke, so he should continue to hit a good number of home runs, but his RBI numbers will probably go down and his run numbers will probably increase.
9. A change in a player’s defensive position can often have an affect on their batting statistics. If they are learning a new position, a player will spend a good portion of their time concentrating on learning how to play the position during the off-season and Spring Training. This may cut down the usual amount of time they spend on practicing and developing their swing. This change could impact their batting stats, especially during the first half of the season.
10. A player who has great defensive skills or who can play multiple positions has fantasy value. Let’s face it, in order to develop fantasy stats the first thing you have to do is get plate appearances. In certain positions like C, SS and CF, defensive skills are as important if not more important then offensive skills. Regardless, if a player shines in the defensive side of the game they are likely to get at bats and thus have the potential to produce fantasy numbers for you. The player who can play adequately at multiple positions also has more fantasy value then the player who can only play one position if all other facets of their game are relatively equal. Once again, this player will have more opportunities for playing time.
III. General projection strategies that apply to pitchers only 1. Like catchers, starting pitchers usually reach their prime years a little later than most hitters. Starting pitchers usually reach their prime when they are 29-31. By this age they are near the peak of their physical skills, but they are better mentally prepared for the game. Pitchers need the additional time to learn their opponent’s tendencies and improve their overall pitching skills.
2. For starting pitchers major league experience is extremely important in their development as fantasy players. I will usually project better statistics for starting pitchers entering their third year as a starter (no matter what their age). At this point, they tend to show better overall production.
3. For starting pitchers innings pitched per start and the number of quality starts can impact my projections for wins. A pitcher who usually pitches into the 7th inning has a much better chance of picking up wins compared to pitchers who only average 5 or 6 innings per start.
4. I am a believer in the theory that young pitchers who throw too many innings early in their career will be less productive as they reach their late 20’s and early 30’s at the time they should be peaking. Factors that determine how much I will lower their projections include how they deliver the ball, their overall build and how well they use their legs when pitching.
5. The overall quality of the team affects both the starting and relief pitcher projections. A pitcher on the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies will probably have a better chance of winning/saving games because the quality of the players on their team is superior to the average team. Likewise, pitchers on Washington and Pittsburgh will have a harder time getting wins/saves even though they produce quality stats in the other fantasy categories.
6. Tendencies of the pitching coaches can impact both starters and relievers. Do they leave starters in or have a quick hook? Do they think the bullpen by committee approach works or do they commit to one closer? Do they have a track record where they have developed players to be better pitchers? These are all things that are considered when adjusting the base projections.
7. In general, National League pitchers have slightly better overall ERA numbers because the American League has the DH, while the National League does not. I am not going to get into the whole debate over what league is better because of the DH rule, but you should be aware that National League pitcher ERA’s on average are lower then American League pitcher ERA’s.
8. There are four ratios trends that I review over a three year period that impact the projections. If the ratios show a positive trend I will probably increase the projections, if a negative trend I will probably lower the projections.
A. The strike out ratio (K’s per 9 IP) shows pitchers dominance on the mound either by sheer power or by being able to deceive hitters by keeping them off balance. I look for a strike out ratio of 6.0 and above. The theory behind this ratio is the fewer players that make contact and put the ball in play, the better the chances of having a lower ERA and higher win total.
B. The walk ratio (BB’s per 9 IP) will show a pitchers control. I look for a walk ratio of 2.0 or below. This follows a similar theory as the strikeout ratio, but also helps out the WHIP figures. The fewer hitters you allow on base, the better chances of having a lower ERA and higher win total.
C. The pitchers authority ratio is calculated by taking K/BB. This is a good ratio to determine the overall influence or authority the pitcher is having on the game. The higher the ratio the more influence the pitcher has on the game. For starting pitchers a ratio of 2.5 or higher is considered decent. For relievers the ratio should be 2.75 or higher. Generally, a ratio below 2.0 is not considered good and a ratio above 3.0 is considered good.
D. The final stat we look at is the opposition batting average and OBP against the pitcher. This directly influences a pitchers WHIP stats, which in turn usually affect the pitchers ERA and win totals.
Final Comments In all my years of predicting performances for baseball players, I can say with certainty, that there is no certainty in this crazy game called baseball that we adore. With that said, I can tell you that based on my experiences, I have a higher probability of predicting hitters stats then predicting pitchers stats. I will also say that if there are three consecutive years of quality data available on a hitter or starting pitcher, I will have a high probability of predicting fairly accurate stats for that player. Bottom of the rotation fourth and fifth starting pitchers, closers (other then the few elite ones) and rookies are the hardest players to project, but as you can see with the process listed above I sure give it a good try.
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