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2007 Fantasy Baseball - Stolen Base Threats

(By Mike Inglett of Sport Fanatics Fantasy Sports on 2-25-2008)

 

This year we decided to do an article about players who are, or could be, stolen base threats. Stolen bases are included in nearly all of the league formats and we are constantly asked to help people plan their fantasy drafts with some type of information on stolen base leaders and possible stolen base candidates that owners can pick up later in the draft. Unlike batting average, runs and RBI's, stolen bases offers you a somewhat unique ability to rapidly gain in your league standings because it is a category that you can move up in fairly quickly with just a couple of players.

 

What we have put together is a list of stolen base threats/candidates for the upcoming 2008 season, with a ranking and a tier grouping. Please note, these projections are as of February 23, 2008. We may periodically update the comments section, but this should give you a good idea of where your stolen base options reside. We wrote comments for the top 25 stolen base threat players and then included some comments on the lower ranked players who if given playing time would do well in the SB category.

 

SB RANK TIER RANK PLAYER TEAM AGE POS SB SB/PA Comments
1 1 Jose Reyes NYM 24.8 SS 68 .096 Best SB threat… by far! Elite player who will go in the first round of any draft format.
2 2 Carl Crawford TB 26.6 OF 50 .078 Elite player who will go in the late first round or early second round of most drafts.
3 2 Hanley Ramirez FLA 24.3 SS 47 .070 Elite player who will go in the first round of any draft format. Has past Soriano as the best power/speed player in the game.
4 2 Chone Figgins ANA 30.2 3B 46 .073 Solid 4-6 round pick. Does not excel in any other category but is fairly consistent.
5 2 Michael Bourn HOU 25.2 OF 44 .089 First year that he will be a full-time starter. Has potential to put up well over 40 SB's if he gets the plate appearances. No power and limited batting skills are a question mark, but he has blazing speed.
6 2 Juan Pierre LAD 30.6 OF 42 .079 For the first time in his career, he will have to battle for playing time. Is one dimensional and overrated as a fantasy player. He will go earlier in the drafts then his true value.
7 3 Brian Roberts BAL 30.4 2B 40 .060 Nice pick in 2B position that only has a couple star players. Helps in other categories, but is not dominate in any of them.
8 3 Willy Taveras COL 26.2 OF 37 .071 He has no power, but he will bat for a decent batting average. He is sometimes forgotten in drafts, could be a good choice in the middle of the draft.
9 3 Ichiro Suzuki SEA 34.4 OF 36 .050 Will excel in 3 of the 5 categories. Usually is gone by the fourth or fifth round of most drafts.
10 3 Jimmy Rollins PHI 29.3 SS 36 .050 Very good all around player with some pop. Will be taken in the mid first or early second round of most fantasy draft formats.
11 4 Shane Victorino PHI 27.4 OF 33 .062 A little bit of pop in his bat, but he does not excel at anything other than SB's.
12 4 Eric Byrnes ARI 32.1 OF 33 .052 Had a monster year in 2007, we are expecting a drop off back to his more "normal" stats. Good blend of power and speed.
13 4 Jerry Owens CHW 27.1 OF 32 .081 Has tremendous speed, but will battle for playing time. If he gets the CF job, he would be worth a later round pick as he would get 40-50 SB's if starting.
14 4 Dave Roberts SF 35.9 OF 31 .068 Still can get 30+ SB's, but he is aging, playing on a bad team in a pitchers park and has not been guaranteed the full-time starting job. Buyer beware!
15 4 Rafael Furcal LAD 29.6 SS 31 .048 Had various injuries last season that slowed him down. Expect him to get around 30 SB's and have better all around numbers in 2008.
16 4 Jacoby Ellsbury BOS 24.7 OF 30 .059 Playing time will determine his success. He is not guaranteed the starting job in CF with Crisp still in BOS. 
17 4 B.J. Upton TB 23.6 OF/2B 29 .046 Last year he finally broke out and showed all his potential. Should be a 30/30 threat for many years to come.
18 5 Carlos Gomez MIN 22.3 OF 28 .074 Will battle for the starting CF job in MIN. Has terrific speed and if he wins the job could be a legitimate 40 SB threat. Had 31 SB's in 99 major/minor league games last year. 41 SB's in the minors in '06.
19 5 Corey Patterson ZFA 28.6 OF 28 .068 As of this article was not signed by a team yet. Should get 25 SB's on almost any team he goes to, could do much better depending on where he ends up.
20 5 Julio Lugo BOS 32.3 SS 28 .047 Like Furcal, we expect better all around numbers from Lugo in 2008 to go along with his predictable 25-30 SB each year.
21 5 Grady Sizemore CLE 25.6 OF 28 .039 Excellent all around player who will go early in the second round of most fantasy drafts. Has good power and is an excellent run producer.
22 5 Ryan Theriot CHC 28.3 SS/2B 27 .052 First year where he has a good shot at starting. Very nice pickup later in the draft because he has excellent speed and has 2B/SS eligibility.
23 5 Rickie Weeks MIL 25.6 2B 27 .047 He will not be an elite player because of his batting average, but we think a 25/25 season is obtainable for Weeks if he puts it all together in 2008.
24 5 Chris Young ARI 24.6 OF 27 .044 As a rookie last season, he proved that a 30/30 season could be obtainable for many years. His low batting average keeps him out of the top OF tiers.
25 5 Brandon Phillips CIN 26.8 2B 27 .043 Phillips has put together a couple of good years now and is batting in the middle of the order in CIN. A 25/25 season with high run and RBI numbers is reason to pick him in the 2nd or 3rd round of your draft.
26 5 Rajai Davis SF 27.5 OF 26 .078 May take some time from Dave Roberts this season, but even if he does will only contribute in the SB category.
27 5 Kaz Matsui HOU 32.5 2B 25 .052 Looks to have the starting job in HOU this season. Surprised us with 32 SB last season as a part time starter. We think he will back down in 2008 even though he may get more AB's than last year. Prior to last season, the highest SB total he had was 14.
28 5 Alfonso Soriano CHC 32.2 OF 25 .039  
29 5 David Wright NYM 25.2 3B 25 .037  
30 6 Curtis Granderson DET 27.1 OF 23 .034