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2007 Fantasy Baseball - Stolen Base Threats

(By Mike Inglett of Sport Fanatics Fantasy Sports on 2-25-2008)

 

This year we decided to do an article about players who are, or could be, stolen base threats. Stolen bases are included in nearly all of the league formats and we are constantly asked to help people plan their fantasy drafts with some type of information on stolen base leaders and possible stolen base candidates that owners can pick up later in the draft. Unlike batting average, runs and RBI's, stolen bases offers you a somewhat unique ability to rapidly gain in your league standings because it is a category that you can move up in fairly quickly with just a couple of players.

 

What we have put together is a list of stolen base threats/candidates for the upcoming 2008 season, with a ranking and a tier grouping. Please note, these projections are as of February 23, 2008. We may periodically update the comments section, but this should give you a good idea of where your stolen base options reside. We wrote comments for the top 25 stolen base threat players and then included some comments on the lower ranked players who if given playing time would do well in the SB category.

 

SB RANK TIER RANK PLAYER TEAM AGE POS SB SB/PA Comments
1 1 Jose Reyes NYM 24.8 SS 68 .096 Best SB threat… by far! Elite player who will go in the first round of any draft format.
2 2 Carl Crawford TB 26.6 OF 50 .078 Elite player who will go in the late first round or early second round of most drafts.
3 2 Hanley Ramirez FLA 24.3 SS 47 .070 Elite player who will go in the first round of any draft format. Has past Soriano as the best power/speed player in the game.
4 2 Chone Figgins ANA 30.2 3B 46 .073 Solid 4-6 round pick. Does not excel in any other category but is fairly consistent.
5 2 Michael Bourn HOU 25.2 OF 44 .089 First year that he will be a full-time starter. Has potential to put up well over 40 SB's if he gets the plate appearances. No power and limited batting skills are a question mark, but he has blazing speed.
6 2 Juan Pierre LAD 30.6 OF 42 .079 For the first time in his career, he will have to battle for playing time. Is one dimensional and overrated as a fantasy player. He will go earlier in the drafts then his true value.
7 3 Brian Roberts BAL 30.4 2B 40 .060 Nice pick in 2B position that only has a couple star players. Helps in other categories, but is not dominate in any of them.
8 3 Willy Taveras COL 26.2 OF 37 .071 He has no power, but he will bat for a decent batting average. He is sometimes forgotten in drafts, could be a good choice in the middle of the draft.
9 3 Ichiro Suzuki SEA 34.4 OF 36 .050 Will excel in 3 of the 5 categories. Usually is gone by the fourth or fifth round of most drafts.
10 3 Jimmy Rollins PHI 29.3 SS 36 .050 Very good all around player with some pop. Will be taken in the mid first or early second round of most fantasy draft formats.
11 4 Shane Victorino PHI 27.4 OF 33 .062 A little bit of pop in his bat, but he does not excel at anything other than SB's.
12 4 Eric Byrnes ARI 32.1 OF 33 .052 Had a monster year in 2007, we are expecting a drop off back to his more "normal" stats. Good blend of power and speed.
13 4 Jerry Owens CHW 27.1 OF 32 .081 Has tremendous speed, but will battle for playing time. If he gets the CF job, he would be worth a later round pick as he would get 40-50 SB's if starting.
14 4 Dave Roberts SF 35.9 OF 31 .068 Still can get 30+ SB's, but he is aging, playing on a bad team in a pitchers park and has not been guaranteed the full-time starting job. Buyer beware!
15 4 Rafael Furcal LAD 29.6 SS 31 .048 Had various injuries last season that slowed him down. Expect him to get around 30 SB's and have better all around numbers in 2008.
16 4 Jacoby Ellsbury BOS 24.7 OF 30 .059 Playing time will determine his success. He is not guaranteed the starting job in CF with Crisp still in BOS. 
17 4 B.J. Upton TB 23.6 OF/2B 29 .046 Last year he finally broke out and showed all his potential. Should be a 30/30 threat for many years to come.
18 5 Carlos Gomez MIN 22.3 OF 28 .074 Will battle for the starting CF job in MIN. Has terrific speed and if he wins the job could be a legitimate 40 SB threat. Had 31 SB's in 99 major/minor league games last year. 41 SB's in the minors in '06.
19 5 Corey Patterson ZFA 28.6 OF 28 .068 As of this article was not signed by a team yet. Should get 25 SB's on almost any team he goes to, could do much better depending on where he ends up.
20 5 Julio Lugo BOS 32.3 SS 28 .047 Like Furcal, we expect better all around numbers from Lugo in 2008 to go along with his predictable 25-30 SB each year.
21 5 Grady Sizemore CLE 25.6 OF 28 .039 Excellent all around player who will go early in the second round of most fantasy drafts. Has good power and is an excellent run producer.
22 5 Ryan Theriot CHC 28.3 SS/2B 27 .052 First year where he has a good shot at starting. Very nice pickup later in the draft because he has excellent speed and has 2B/SS eligibility.
23 5 Rickie Weeks MIL 25.6 2B 27 .047 He will not be an elite player because of his batting average, but we think a 25/25 season is obtainable for Weeks if he puts it all together in 2008.
24 5 Chris Young ARI 24.6 OF 27 .044 As a rookie last season, he proved that a 30/30 season could be obtainable for many years. His low batting average keeps him out of the top OF tiers.
25 5 Brandon Phillips CIN 26.8 2B 27 .043 Phillips has put together a couple of good years now and is batting in the middle of the order in CIN. A 25/25 season with high run and RBI numbers is reason to pick him in the 2nd or 3rd round of your draft.
26 5 Rajai Davis SF 27.5 OF 26 .078 May take some time from Dave Roberts this season, but even if he does will only contribute in the SB category.
27 5 Kaz Matsui HOU 32.5 2B 25 .052 Looks to have the starting job in HOU this season. Surprised us with 32 SB last season as a part time starter. We think he will back down in 2008 even though he may get more AB's than last year. Prior to last season, the highest SB total he had was 14.
28 5 Alfonso Soriano CHC 32.2 OF 25 .039  
29 5 David Wright NYM 25.2 3B 25 .037  
30 6 Curtis Granderson DET 27.1 OF 23 .034  
31 6 Coco Crisp BOS 28.4 OF 22 .044  
32 6 Jason Bartlett TB 28.4 SS 22 .039  
33 6 Cameron Maybin FLA 21.0 OF 21 .059 The 21 year old phenom could be FLA starting OF on Opening Day. We think if he even gets over 325 AB this season he could be in the 20 SB range. Excellent keeper/dynasty league player to draft.
34 6 Ryan Freel CIN 32.0 OF 21 .058 Will battle Norris Hopper and Jay Bruce for the CF job this spring. Freel is versatile and thus should get 300 AB's even if he does not start. Adjust his SB's accordingly if he wins the CF job.
35 6 Johnny Damon NYY 34.4 OF 21 .036  
36 6 Ian Kinsler TEX 25.8 2B 21 .035  
37 6 Bobby Abreu NYY 34.0 OF 21 .032  
38 6 Erick Aybar ANA 24.2 SS/2B 20 .050 Will battle M. Izturis for the starting SS job in ANA. Has decent speed and if he gets 400 AB could reach 20 SB.
39 6 Corey Hart MIL 26.0 OF 20 .034  
40 7 Nate McLouth PIT 26.5 OF 19 .046  
41 7 Felipe Lopez WAS 27.9 SS/2B 19 .040  
42 7 Luis Castillo NYM 32.5 2B 19 .033  
43 7 Carlos Beltran NYM 31.0 OF 19 .031  
44 7 Ryan Braun MIL 24.4 3B 19 .030  
45 7 Orlando Cabrera CHW 33.4 SS 19 .029  
46 7 Joey Gathright KC 26.9 OF 18 .058 Terrific speed, no power and limited playing time equal minimal fantasy appeal. 
47 7 Matt Kemp LAD 23.5 OF 18 .034  
48 7 Alex Rodriguez NYY 32.7 3B 18 .027  
49 7 Kenny Lofton ZFA 40.8 OF 17 .040  
50 7 Alex Rios TOR 27.1 OF 17 .026  
51 7 Derek Jeter NYY 33.7 SS 17 .025  
52 8 Reggie Willits ANA 26.8 OF 16 .060 Because of injuries, he was given the chance to play and did quite well. This year he will have limited playing time even if there are injuries as there are 5 OF in front of him on the depth chart.
53 8 Nyjer Morgan PIT 27.8 OF 16 .060 Terrific speed, no power and limited playing time equal minimal fantasy appeal. 
54 8 Alexi Casilla MIN 23.7 2B 16 .059 Are you seeing a trend here? No power and average (at best) hitting skills. Will battle for playing time, but offers very little outside of SB.
55 8 Mike Cameron MIL 35.2 OF 16 .032  
56 8 Russell Martin LAD 25.1 C 16 .028  
57 8 Josh Anderson ATL 25.7 OF 15 .058 Has almost no power and with the Kotsay trade may not even make the roster. If he does 12-15 SB's as a pinch runner should be a given as he stole over 40 bases in the minors last year.
58 8 Felix Pie CHC 23.2 OF 15 .032  
59 8 Alex Gordon KC 24.2 3B/1B 15 .026  
60 8 Gary Matthews Jr. ANA 33.6 OF 15 .025  
61 8 Torii Hunter ANA 32.7 OF 15 .024  
62 8 Delmon Young MIN 22.6 OF 15 .023  
63 8 Scott Podsednik COL 32.0 OF 14 .061 Has been a top SB threat for many years, but now he will have limited playing time and thus little fantasy value.
64 8 Norris Hopper CIN 29.0 OF 14 .047  
65 8 Hunter Pence HOU 25.0 OF 14 .023  
66 8 Nick Markakis BAL 24.4 OF 14 .021  
67 9 Chris Duffy PIT 28.0 OF 13 .055 Excellent speed, but limited playing time and very little power will limit his fantasy value.
68 9 Omar Vizquel SF 40.9 SS 13 .023  
69 9 Melky Cabrera NYY 23.7 OF 13 .022  
70 9 Eugenio Velez SF 25.9 2B 12 .071 Excellent speed, but limited playing time and no power will  limit his fantasy value.
71 9 Nook Logan LAD 28.3 OF 12 .061 Excellent speed, but limited playing time and no power will  limit his fantasy value.
72 9 Alfredo Amezaga FLA 30.2 OF 12 .034  
73 9 Nick Punto MIN 30.4 3B/SS/2B 12 .033  
74 9 Franklin Gutierrez CLE 25.1 OF 12 .026  
75 9 Lastings Milledge WAS 23.0 OF 12 .024  
76 9 Justin Upton ARI 20.6 OF 12 .024 Only 20 years old entering the 2008 season. Could develop into one of the elite power/speed combo players with time.
77 9 Asdrubal Cabrera CLE 22.4 2B 12 .022  
78 9 Gary Sheffield DET 39.3 DH 12 .021  
79 9 Tadahito Iguchi SD 33.3 2B 12 .021  
80 9 Edgar Renteria DET 32.6 SS 12 .020  
81 9 Randy Winn SF 33.8 OF 12 .020  
82 9 Carlos Lee HOU 31.8 OF 12 .018  
83 9 Chase Utley PHI 29.3 2B 12 .018  
84 9 Freddy Guzman DET 27.2 OF 11 .074 Bench Player with terrific speed. He stole 56 bases in the minors last year, but will have a very tough time cracking DET lineup.
85 9 Willie Bloomquist SEA 30.3 OF/2B/3B/SS 11 .050  
86 9 Maicer Izturis ANA 27.5 3B/2B 11 .028  
87 9 Colby Rasmus STL 21.7 OF 11 .027  
88 9 Rocco Baldelli TB 26.5 OF 11 .027  
89 9 Howie Kendrick ANA 24.7 2B 11 .021  
90 9 Akinori Iwamura TB 29.2 3B 11 .019  
91 9 Mark Teahen KC 26.6 OF 11 .019  
92 10 Freddie Bynum BAL 28.1 OF 10 .053 Very good speed, but limited playing time will limit his fantasy value.
93 10 Tony Gwynn Jr. MIL 25.5 OF 10 .044  
94 10 Jason Pridie MIN 24.5 OF 10 .041  
95 10 Esteban German KC 30.1 2B/3B 10 .032  
96 10 Brendan Ryan STL 26.0 SS/3B 10 .032  
97 10 Daniel Ortmeier SF 26.9 OF/1B 10 .022  
98 10 Carlos Guillen DET 32.5 1B/SS 10 .017  
99 10 Kelly Johnson ATL 26.1 2B 10 .017  
100 10 Orlando Hudson ARI 30.3 2B 10 .017  
101 10 Stephen Drew ARI 25.1 SS 10 .016  
102 10 Vernon Wells TOR 29.3 OF 10 .016  
103 10 Adrian Beltre SEA 29.0 3B 10 .015  
104 10 Matt Holliday COL 28.2 OF 10 .015  

 

SB: Projected stolen bases as of February 23, 2008

SB/PA: Stolen Bases divided by Plate Appearances (PA). If a player is over .050, then you can consider that player a good stolen base threat if given playing time. A percentage over .070 is an elite speed player.

 

 

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