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Before I begin the article, I want to provide you with my definition of the different categories I will be discussing.
"Studs" are the elite players in the respective position. "Breakout" are players who I think will come on in a big way in 2009 and produce at a much higher level than most people anticipate they will produce. "Comeback Player" are players who had a down year in 2008 or did not have the type of year that was expected, but will rebound in 2009 with a good season. "Overrated" are players who may be good, but are drafted higher than their actual fantasy stat production. "Risky Pick" are players who may produce at a high level, but have some concern associated with them such as being frequently injured or are now on a new team and have a new role. "Underrated/Value Pick" are established players that will give you a lot production compared to the round in which I anticipate they will be picked. "Sleeper" are players who are not well known or that have not had a breakout season, but who I think have the potential to produce at a higher level than they will be picked. "Hot Prospect" are young players who have less than a year (if any) major league experience who could surprise in 2009 and are definitely players you will want to consider in keeper/dynasty league formats.
Catchers
Studs: Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto and Russell Martin
Breakout: Chris Iannetta - In 2008, began the season as a backup. He eventually became the starter and is primed for a breakout year in 2009. He has already shown good power, but we expect his overall offensive numbers to improve with added playing time.
Comeback Player: Victor Martinez - Elbow surgery early in the 2008 season sidelined him for 2 1/2 months. Martinez should be healthy entering 2009 and thus return to being a top 5 fantasy catcher.
Overrated: Jason Varitek - He is a great team player and brings intangibles to the Red Sox locker room, but do not equate that to fantasy production. He has not been productive for several years and will be 37 years old entering the 2009 season.
Risky Pick: Jorge Posada - Coming off of shoulder surgery in 2008. We regard him as a risky pick because he is 37 years old, has had a lot of wear and tear on his body. He is still a top 10-12 fantasy catcher, but do not over value him on draft day.
Underrated/Value Pick: Bengie Molina and A.J. Pierzynski - Both are solid veterans who produce every year. They will not win you any titles, but they certainly will not cause you to lose any as well. Both will come cheaper than expected.
Sleeper: Kurt Suzuki - Good, young talent who will be solid across the board in all fantasy categories as compared to other catchers. We also think his HR and RBI figures will jump from last season after getting a year of seasoning under his belt.
Hot Prospect: Matt Wieters - 2008 minor league player of the year. Highly regarded as the best catching prospect to come along since Joe Mauer. In many ways he should be like Mauer, but with more power. Baltimore signed Greg Zaun, so Wieters will be brought along slowly, he should be starting by mid-season if not sooner.
First Basemen
Studs: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira
Breakout: Chris Davis - Has huge power potential which should lead to a breakout year in 2009. Had 17 HR's in less than 300 at bats last season, now that he is a starter 30+ HR's should be within his reach.
Comeback Player: Adam LaRoche - Overall did not produce bad numbers in 2008, but we expect so much more from him. He usually starts out the season slow, but last year was horrific. Only had 8 HR's through June 30, but came on strong with 17 HR's in the second half of the season.
Overrated: Carlos Pena - Do not expect him to replicate his 2007 numbers. He will produce some decent power numbers, but he is a .250-.260 hitter so be sure to adjust for that in your overall rankings. We see him as a borderline fantasy starter at 1B.
Risky Pick: Aubrey Huff - Which Huff will show up in 2009? Will it be the 2003, 2004 and 2008 version which produced quality fantasy numbers or will it be the 2005, 2006 and 2007 version which produced average fantasy numbers? That is why he is a risky pick.
Underrated/Value Pick: Adrian Gonzalez - Even though he plays in a very pitcher friendly park, he continue to produce at a very high level because he mashes when on the road. His power numbers continue to increase and he is just beginning to enter his prime.
Sleeper: Joey Votto - Had a decent rookie year, but now that he will be in the middle of the order expect power numbers to increase. He is a top 12 fantasy 1B with good upside.
Hot Prospect: Pablo Sandoval - Has 1B eligibility entering the 2009 season, but will likely start at 3B for San Francisco this season. Does not have the typical power of corner infielders, but will hit for a high average.
Second Basemen
Studs: Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley
Breakout: Alexei Ramirez - The White Sox did not make him a full-time starter until mid-May, from that point on he was very good. This year, he will probably be moved to SS, where he has the potential to be a top fantasy SS. Good power and decent speed, just needs better plate discipline.
Comeback Player: Rickie Weeks - Too much talent here and he is still only 26 years old. He has been injury prone, which has hindered his development. Has potential for 18 HR and 25 SB season, just needs to get that average up to the .265 range.
Overrated: Robinson Cano - Is viewed as a top five 2B, we just don't see it that way. His batting average has dropped for 3 years in a row and he adds little in the SB category. He is worthy of a top 8-10 spot, just don't over value him.
Risky Pick: Howie Kendrick - Injury concerns and a one dimensional player make Kendrick a risky pick. He has potential, but lacks power and his SB ability is below average. Kendrick should bat for a very good average, but I would not expect much more from him than that.
Underrated/Value Pick: Jose Lopez - What is not to like, he will get you 18 HR, 80 Runs, 85 RBI's, bat around .280 and a handful of SB's. You can get all of this from a late round pick, now that is value.
Sleeper: Alexi Casilla - Was called up in mid-May and for about two months was an RBI machine. He was hurt in late July and from that point on was less effective, but you can see the potential he has when given the opportunity. Also, like the upside with his base stealing ability.
Hot Prospect: Chris Getz - As of now, Getz is projected to be the starting 2B for Chicago this year. He is not stellar in any category, but should be solid across the board in all categories. We should also mention Eugenio Velez since he is in the hunt for the starting job in SF and has 30 SB potential if he does win the job.
Shortstops
Studs: Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes
Breakout: Do not see any breakouts at SS this year.
Comeback Player: Troy Tulowitzki - After a great 2007 season, he faltered mightily in 2008. He had a horrible April and then was out a few months with a quad tear. He had a decent second half, but his overall numbers were well below what was expected. His numbers may not reach 2007 levels, but should be much improved from the 2008 campaign.Overrated: Miguel Tejada - Found out last season he was two years older then what he listed... and he sure played like it. Has never been a SB threat, so his power is what gives him value. Last year he only hit 13 HR's and there may be a reason why that number is more of the norm based on steroid allegations.
Risky Pick: Orlando Cabrera - Still has not signed with a team yet and is a free agent as of mid-February. His age and uncertain role make us think twice about drafting him as a starter unless he finds a team and a defined role soon.
Underrated/Value Pick: Rafael Furcal - Was having a great season until his back injury sidelined him in May for pretty much the rest of the season. He is a quality starting fantasy SS who can help in the SB, runs and batting average categories.
Sleeper: Do not see any sleepers at SS this year.
Hot Prospect: Elvis Andrus - It appears that Texas will move Michael Young from SS to 3B to make room for Andrus. Like most young rookies (he is only 20), he will have a lot of growing pains but could develop into a good fantasy player. Should also mention Alcides Escobar (MIL) who looks to be a future star. Unless there are injuries to Weeks or Hardy, he will not get much playing time but has very good long term potential.
Third Basemen
Studs: Alex Rodriguez and David Wright, Evan Longoria
Breakout: Edwin Encarnacion - Only 26, he has several years of MLB experience and this could be the year that he has a breakout season. He plays his home games in a hitter friendly park, has the potential to hit 30 HR's and now with Griffey and Dunn out of the lineup he will be relied on more to drive in runs.
Comeback Player: Hank Blalock - He has only played 123 games in the past 2 seasons combined. He had a great final month of the 2008 season and looks to be healthy for the first time in a very long time coming into spring training. He will be the primary DH in Texas this year and of the few 3B candidates to have a comeback year we would bet on him. Good pick very late in the draft could reward you with 25 HR's, 80 RBI's and a .285 batting average if he stays healthy.
Overrated: Ryan Zimmerman - OK, we know he is young and full of potential. With that said, the last 2 seasons have been less than stellar yet he seems to be drafted near when Aramis Ramirez and Chipper Jones are drafted. Zimmerman is a decent, young talent, but for fantasy purposes he is nothing more than a borderline starter at 3B in a 12 team fantasy league therefore, draft accordingly.
Risky Pick: Melvin Mora - Had a very good 2008 season, at 37 we would expect him to fall back more to his norm in 2009. HR's, RBI's and batting average were all well above what he had produced the two previous season. He is worth a CI spot, but do not draft him hoping that he will have a repeat performance in 2009.
Underrated/Value Pick: Adrian Beltre - If you want consistent numbers from your 3B, look no further than Beltre. He is 29 and in his prime, he will get you 25 HR's, 75 runs, 80 RBI's, 8-10 SB's and have a batting average around .275. These are not great fantasy numbers, but Beltre will give you all-around solid fantasy numbers and usually come fairly cheap in your draft.
Sleeper: Kevin Kouzmanoff - He plays in a very pitcher friendly park and lacks plate discipline, but he has already displayed a very good power stroke and when in the minors hit for a high batting average. He has the potential to put up improved numbers from 2008 and he has been involved in trade rumors this offseason. If he is traded his value goes up even more.
Hot Prospect: Probably not going to be of much value this year, but both Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez could have huge MLB careers ahead of them.
Outfielders
Studs: Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton and Alfonso Soriano.
Breakout: Jay Bruce - The Reds kept him in the minors the first two months of the season last year, but Bruce eventually got to the Show. He started out on fire, but like most rookies had an up-and-down campaign in 2008. Bruce will only be 22 on opening day this year, but we expect 30 HR's, 85 RBI's and a .270 batting average from him in 2009. He is a "must have" in keeper leagues.
Comeback Player: Jeff Francoeur - His value should be at an all-time low as his 2008 season was terrible. It was so bad that the Braves sent him to the minors so that he could work on his swing. The Braves outfield is young with potential, but no one will be pushing Francoeur out of a job in 2009. Expect to be able to pick up Francoeur late in the draft and see if he reverts back to his pre-2008 production.
Overrated: Delmon Young - With Michael Cuddyer coming back from injuries, and the emergence of Denard Span and Carlos Gomez in the Minnesota outfield, Delmon might find it tough to get playing time on daily basis unless he is traded. Young is only 23, talented and had a pretty good second half of the season, but it appears he does not have the power that he was projected to have while in the minors and is too much of a free swinger.
Risky Pick: Milton Bradley - Lots of talent, but is constantly injured. When he plays he is a high quality fantasy producer, but if you draft him have a decent replacement and expect only 400-425 at bats from him.
Underrated/Value Pick: Raul Ibanez - If you are looking for 25 HR's, 100 RBI's and a .290 batting average in the 7th round or later, look no further than Ibanez. He has moved to a much better hitting park where he will be surrounded by a better batting order. Ibanez is a great value pick for single season leagues.
Sleeper: Justin Upton - He will only be 21, but has been in the majors for parts of the past two seasons, so that should tell you the type of talent he holds. Had 15 HR's in 356 at bats last season all well having to deal with an oblique injury during the middle of the season. He should easily reach 20 HR's and 70 RBI's, but there is potential for so much more. If you are in a keeper league do not wait to long to grab him.
Hot Prospect: Cameron Maybin, Travis Snider and Colby Rasmus. All three of these prospects will enter spring training with starting jobs, they just need to hold on to them. Maybin has the most upside of the three listed as he could get you 15 HR's and 30 SB's, but he does need to work on not being so much of a free swinger. Snider has the most power potential of the three OF prospects listed, but he is very raw and needs a little more seasoning at the upper levels, so this may be an up-and-down season for him. Rasmus has the potential to be a 5 tool player, LaRussa will probably hold him back a little this season, but the potential is there if he continues to develop.
Starting Pitchers
Studs: Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb
Breakout: Zack Greinke - His ERA, WHIP and win totals have improved in each of the past three seasons. Had a strong second half of the season in 2008 and could be ready for a breakout campaign. He will have a tough time winning 16 games since he plays in KC, but should do well in the other three categories.
If Joba Chamberlain settles into a full-time role as a starter, we think he could have a breakout season as well. Watch this spring to see if the Yankees do indeed put him in the rotation on a consistent basis.
Comeback Player: Chien-Ming Wang - Was 8-2 prior to hurting his foot in 2008. Because he was out much of the year, many owners will not draft him where he should be drafted. Remember that prior to 2008, he had two consecutive 19 win seasons. He should be fine entering the 2009 season and get you another 18-20 wins. Don't expect many strikeouts, but since he plays on the Yankees, those wins should be automatic.
Overrated: Cliff Lee - 2008 AL Cy Young award winner, had a magical year last season but will fall down to earth this season. Don't draft him based on last years stats, we think 15 wins, 3.50 ERA and 150 strikeouts is more realistic.
Risky Pick: Rich Harden - One word... injuries. Is an extremely talented pitcher, but he is injured all of the time.
Underrated/Value Pick: Jamie Shields - Has now put together two very solid season, we are believers in him now. He should get around 15 wins and has excellent control which makes his WHIP numbers very low for a starting pitcher. We rank him as a top 15 starting pitcher, he is not an elite pitcher, but he is in that next group of very good fantasy pitchers.
Sleeper: Ricky Nolasco - OK, he may not be a sleeper after winning 15 games in 2008 but he is not that well known. He has had injury problems in the past, but we think he is past that now and ready to move into the 3rd tier of elite pitchers in the league.
Hot Prospect: David Price, Max Scherzer, Chris Volstad and Tommy Hanson. Price is the star of this group and has the potential to be a true ace. Scherzer and Volstad should both prove to be worthy fantasy picks this season even though they are very young. Tommy Hanson proved he is ready during the Arizona Fall League, but Atlanta picked up several veteran starting pitchers this offseason. Hanson will not get the same amount innings this year as the other three prospects mentioned, but he has the potential to be a very good keeper prospect.
Relief Pitchers
Studs: Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera
Breakout: Do not see any breakouts at closer this year. Every year there are injuries to closers that lead to breakout seasons for someone. This is the one position where watching the injury report could really prove to be beneficial to the success of your fantasy baseball team.Comeback Player: Mike Gonzalez - Had Tommy John surgery in 2007 and was back for part of the year in 2008 finishing with 14 saves. Prior to the surgery, Gonzalez was a standout reliever. He has the talent and ability to get 25-30 saves and an ERA below 3.00.
Overrated: Houston Street - Coming over from Oakland, will compete with Manuel Corpas for the closer position. His velocity has been going down and his control has been going down the last few years, not a good combination. He may begin the season as the closer, but he will not have much room for error, so do not draft/bid on him thinking he will easily get 30 saves this season.
Risky Pick: Brian Wilson - First, the good news. Wilson was an all star last season and did have 41 saves. The bad news is that Wilson's ERA was 4.62 and his WHIP was 1.44. Wilson is a risky pick in that he could have another 40 save season or he could implode and have less than 10 saves. Be very careful if you plan on drafting him this season.
Underrated/Value Pick: Brian Fuentes - A good closer in Colorado, Fuentes average ERA for the past three seasons was below 3.25 in a very good hitters park. Fuentes will join a club with good hitting and starting pitching, thus a 35-40 save season should be well within reach.
Sleeper: Heath Bell - Now that Trevor Hoffman has moved on from San Diego, Bell will go from setup to closer and we think he has the mental ability and physical tools to succeed.
Hot Prospect: Jason Motte - Is one of the top candidate to close in St. Louis this season.
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