Sport Fanatics Fantasy Baseball Position Scarcity Analysis

The purpose of the 2010 position scarcity analysis is three-fold. First, it allows you to get a good grasp of how strong a position is for typical fantasy baseball league to help determine position scarcity. Second, it allows you to see the “average” production of a starting player on your fantasy baseball team for a particular position. Finally, it provides a way to adjust a player’s fantasy point production to incorporate position scarcity in your rankings.

To start out, I had to determine what is considered a “typical” fantasy baseball league to determine the player pool that was needed to evaluate position scarcity. I used a 12 team league as the standard amount of teams. I determined that a “typical” league was made up of the following: 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 1 MI (2B/SS), 1 CI (1B/3B), 4 OF and 2 Utility Players (any position). The pitching staff for the “typical” league is 9 pitchers. How those 9 pitchers are made up of SP or RP varies greatly. We used 6.5 SP and 2.5 RP to make up the “typical” team.

Now that the ground rules have been set up, the evaluation of position talent can begin. In the "typical" league the total starting player pool will consist of the following: 24 C, 12 1B, 12 2B, 12 SS, 12 3B, 12 additional MI (2B/SS), 12 additional CI (1B/3B), 48 OF, 24 Utility Players (any position), 78 SP and 30 RP. The player pool evaluates 168 hitters and 108 pitchers for a total of 276 total players.

Before I move on with the article, I want to provide you with the actual calculated data. This way you can look it over, digest it and then read on in regards to our comments about each position and how I look at position scarcity. Please note that the position scarcity analysis information below is based on my original projections which were published on the Sport Fanatics web site on January 27, 2010.

Pos	Pos Rank	# of Players at Pos	SF Fantasy Points	2010 AB	2010 R	2010 HR	2010 RBI	2010 SB	2010 BA
C	8	24	55.8	419.8	55.5	14.9	63.8	2.3	0.273
1B	1	28	100.7	550.7	88.7	28.6	99.9	3.8	0.287
2B	4	18	94.1	558.6	88.2	18.9	79.6	12.7	0.284
SS	5	19	93.6	562.4	85.4	12.0	67.1	20.6	0.286
3B	3	20	95.3	543.8	85.3	22.6	88.8	9.4	0.284
OF	2	72	95.6	538.1	82.8	19.7	78.9	16.6	0.280
Util*	N/A	168	90.9	527.8	81.0	19.7	79.5	12.3	0.282
* Total hitter pool. Note, individual positions added together will total more than total hitter pool of 168. The reason is some players have eligibility at multiple positions.

Pos	Pos Rank	# of Players at Pos	SF Fantasy Points	2010 INN	2010 W	2010 S	2010 K	2010 ERA	2010 WHIP
SP	6	78	84.1	194.4	13.2	0.0	163.0	3.788	1.291
RP	7	30	75.6	67.2	3.2	32.0	70.5	3.269	1.201
P*	N/A	108	81.7	159.0	10.5	8.9	137.3	3.727	1.281
* Total pitcher pool (SP and RP)

Average Stats .273 BA - 55.5 R - 14.9 HR - 63.8 RBI - 2.3 SB - 55.8 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the weakest position, by far in this years draft. Was the lowest in all 5 roto categories except for HR where they barely beat out Shortstops. Of the 24 catchers in the analysis, only 3 of them (J.Mauer, V.Martinez and B.McCann) are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: If you do not draft one of the big three, or go after youth with potential upside in M.Wieters, R.Martin or K.Suzuki, you may want to spend very late round picks on your catchers as the fantasy production does not warrant even a middle round draft pick.

Side Note: Some leagues only have one catcher, so I wanted to see what the statistical change was if I based the analysis on the top 12 catchers. Adjusted statistics .285 BA - 67.2 R - 17.3 HR - 76.0 RBI - 3.4 SB - 72.7 Fantasy Points. Improvement, but still the weakest position.

Average Stats .287 BA - 88.7 R - 28.6 HR - 99.9 RBI - 3.8 SB - 100.7 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the strongest position in this years draft with the highest average fantasy point total of any position. Was the highest in 4 of the 5 roto categories, with big leads in HR and RBI's. Of the 28 who had first basemen eligibility in the analysis, 19 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard will/could be first round picks. This is a very deep position to go along with plenty of top end talent. I feel any of the top 14 are worthy of a starting 1B position, problem is many owners will fill their utility and corner infield positions with 1B, so don't wait too long to get one of the top 14.

Average Stats .284 BA - 88.2 R - 18.9 HR - 79.6 RBI - 12.7 SB - 94.1 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the fourth strongest position in this years draft. Averages across the five categories were solid with no deficiencies. Compare the 2B averages with the total hitter pool/utility position, very similar. Of the 18 who had second basemen eligibility in the analysis, 9 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: Chase Utley is the only 2B to consider as a first round option. This is a surprising solid position when it comes to position scarcity. I feel any of the top 8 are worthy of a starting 2B position, their is a good mix of power (C.Utley, I.Kinsler, A.Hill, B.Zobrist, D.Uggla, I. Stewart) and speed (I.Kinsler, B.Phillips, B.Roberts, R.Weeks) to fill categories if needed.

Average Stats .286 BA - 85.4 R - 12.0 HR - 67.1 RBI - 20.6 SB - 93.6 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the fifth strongest position in this years draft, second lowest of the hitter positions. Averages were low in the power categories (HR and RBI), but the highest in stolen bases for all positions. Of the 19 who had shortstop eligibility in the analysis, 8 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: Hanley Ramirez is the only SS to consider as a first round option and he should go in the top 3 of almost any league. There are five SS to consider as 2nd round or early third round picks and they include J.Reyes, J.Rollins, T.Tulowitzki and D.Jeter. There is a drop off after these top 6, but good stolen base threats in J.Bartlett, E.Andrus, A.Escobar, R,Theriot and E.Cabrera that could be picked up in the middle to later rounds of your draft. A.Ramirez and S.Drew could provide some pop later on in the draft if you need this position to help in the power categories.

Average Stats .284 BA - 85.3 R - 22.6 HR - 88.8 RBI - 9.4 SB - 95.3 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the third strongest position in this years draft, but is a little misleading. Averages show that 3B best help out in the HR and RBI categories. Having M.Reynolds, K.Youkilis and P.Sandoval as 1B and 3B eligible helped expand the power numbers, but also makes this position seem stronger than it really is. Of the 20 who had third basemen eligibility in the analysis, 11 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: Alex Rodriguez is the only sure 3B to be picked in the first round. D.Wright and E.Longoria will go in late first or early second rounds of most drafts. I am comfortable with the top 14 as one of my starting 3B as their is plenty of talent. The problem is 4 of those 14 have 1B eligibility and may get picked up as a starting 1B or utility player by one of the team owners and thus the 3B talent pool could dwindle quickly. Watch how your draft develops, I would much rather have C.Figgins, A.Ramirez, M.Young, C.Jones, G.Beckham or J.Cantu as my starter (if I did not draft one of the 7 elite 3B) as opposed to I.Stewart, A.Gordon, M.Prado, C.Headley, M.DeRosa, K.Kouzmanoff which fall into the next tier level. There is plenty of talent, but be aware of how your league draft unfolds.

Average Stats .280 BA - 82.8 R - 19.7 HR - 78.9 RBI - 16.6 SB - 95.6 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the second strongest position in this years draft, behind only first basemen. Averages across the five categories were similar to the overall hitter pool, but with the exception being increased stolen bases in the outfield position. Of the 72 who had outfield eligibility in the analysis, 44 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: You could see as many as four outfielders picked during the first round (Braun, Kemp, Crawford and Holliday). This is a position with some aging vets (I.Suzuki, C.Lee, M.Ramirez, T.Hunter) and young stars (J.Upton, N.Markakis, A.Lind, A.McCutchen) in our top 25. This is one position where league uniformity is not so clear as some leagues have 3, 4 or 5 OF as part of their starting lineup. We used 4 in our analysis of this league. The talent pool here is deep, but there are not that many elite OF's considering how many need to be drafted. So after the elite ones are off the board, I would recommend that you use this position to fill team needs (power, speed, batting average) after you have picked your top 1 or 2 OF. As an example N.Cruz, A.Dunn or C.Quentin are nice upper/mid-draft options for power. J.Pierre, P.Borbon, M.Bourn or N.Morgan are nice mid-draft options for stolen bases. D.Span or C.Coghlin do not stand out in any one category, but would be good mid-draft options to lift your team batting averages.

Average Stats .282 BA - 81.0 R - 19.7 HR - 79.5 RBI - 12.3 SB - 90.9 Fantasy Points

Commentary: This is the average of the 168 hitters that comprise this league, therefore, it is what an average player would generate in the league. Most leagues have 1 or 2 utility/dh positions in their league. This is not a true designated hitter position, but rather a flex position which a true DH may occupy.

Position Wrap Up: I typically draft my utility player after most of my hitter spots (excluding catcher) have been filled. I look for one of three options, depending on how my team is shaping up as I am all about a balanced team. I go for a stolen base player, a power hitter with good HR/RBI numbers or a balanced player who is not weak in any category but has multi-position eligibility.

Average Stats 13.2 W - 0 SVS - 163.0 K - 3.788 ERA - 1.291 WHIP - 84.1 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the sixth strongest position in this years draft of the eight positions being evaluated. Only beats out catchers and relief pitchers and thus is one of the weaker positions. Of the 78 who had starting pitcher eligibility in the analysis, only 29 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Position Wrap Up: Pitching, pitching, pitching. You hate it, you love it. I find it to be one of the hardest positions to rank/project because you never know when injuries are going to happen to their stellar, yet fragile arms. Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay appear to be worthy of first round pick consideration. Your next tier of Z.Greinke, F.Hernandez, CC Sabathia, D.Haren and J.Verlander all could be considered solid second round picks. Then you have a group of 10-15 SP who could go in the rounds 3-5. The numbers suggest that you pick SP fairly early and often in the draft because you have to acquire 6 or 7 of them and because of their position scarcity. The problem with that is that SP are the most injured players in fantasy baseball and you hate to "waste" a top pick without getting very good production out of them.

I know what the numbers say, with that said here is my theory on SP. As all of you know, injuries can kill a team that looks good on paper. I am one who advocates you should have one true ace from the top 12 rated SP (typically picked in rounds 2-4) and that one ace better be able to generate at least 180 K's to go along with good other numbers in the W, ERA and WHIP categories. Typically, I will have picked 2 SP by round 10 and then fill in 3 more SP during the rounds 11-18. My remaining 1 or 2 SP will be picked late in the draft where I look for value or upside potential.

Average Stats 3.2 W - 32.0 SVS - 70.5 K - 3.269 ERA - 1.201 WHIP - 75.6 Fantasy Points

Commentary: Is the second weakest position in this years draft after catchers. Because most middle relievers do not produce many, if any, saves we are primarily looking at closers and setup men when discussing relief pitching in fantasy baseball (unless your league has Holds as a category). Also, since closers and setup men typically do not pitch more than 70 innings during the year, their Win, ERA and WHIP numbers typically do not add as much value to your overall pitching staff Win, ERA and WHIP categories like SP who average 180 IP. Of the 30 who had relief pitcher eligibility in the analysis, only 5 of them are expected to produce above the league average of 87.3 fantasy points.

Here we go again. Pitching, pitching, pitching. You hate it, you love it. I find it to be one of the hardest positions to rank/project because (wait for it) you never know when injuries are going to occur or when they will have a mental melt down. Relief pitchers and in particular closers, have to have a tough mental makeup in order to be successful. They need a certain swagger / confidence. Some hold it inside and some show it outside in their personalities, but all good closers have it. The confidence part is even harder to predict then the injury part of their projections.

With that said, on with the position wrap up. There is no closer worthy of a first round, second round, third round, fourth round and probably even fifth round pick because of the comments mentioned above. Getting into the sixth or seventh round is when should start seeing the elite closers going off the board, if you see them go before that, just smile... on the inside. The first group of closers who are all relatively equal in fantasy points are Jonathan Broxton, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon. Your next tier of closers will probably include Joakim Soria, Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell and maybe Andrew Bailey, those closers will go in rounds seven or eight. The numbers suggest that you pick an RP prior to round 8 because of their position scarcity. The problem with that is that RP change more often because of injuries and mental toughness issues more than any position, typically about 30% of closers that start the season are not the primary closers throughout the year. Once again, in fantasy baseball and you hate to "waste" a top pick without getting very good production out of them.

I know what the numbers say, with that said here is my theory on RP. I am against dumping a category, so I do believe you should always draft 2-3 closers during the draft. I know it is hard to predict with the high turnover ratio, but try and draft at least one of the top 10 closers to possibly get you 35-40 saves, as I mentioned drafting them before round 6 is not advised. After the top 12-15 closers are picked, jump in again and draft your second closer which you should be able to get between rounds 11-15 of most drafts. When drafting closers look at injury history and if they have a lock on the closer job. Forget about what team they are on as it is not correct to think that a teams win total directly corresponds with the number of save opportunities the player will have. Late in the draft I will then do one of three things with my final relief pitcher pick. First, if one of my two closers by chance has injury concerns or is not an absolute lock at the closer position heading into the season, I will pick the primary setup man behind him in the depth charts so that I can always have two closers. second, I look for situations where there is unrest at a closer position and if the expected closer is already picked and falters, then there is a good chance my late round pick will have great value if they then become the primary closer for the major league club. Third, I look for rookies who have high end potential who may eventually work their way into a closer role.

Best of luck to you this fantasy baseball season, hope this article helps you on your way to winning a league championship.

Please note, I was working on this article when a similar article that CBS Sportsline writes called 2010 +/- Player Ratings came out. I liked the article, but the projected numbers they use are different than what I used. Both articles are well worth reading and seeing things through two, sometimes different, perspectives can be beneficial.

SPORT FANATICS FANTASY BASEBALL 2010 POSITION SCARCITY ANALYSIS